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200829Oct

What If Obama Loses?

The polls have been very clear over the last couple of months: An Obama victory on November 4th seems very likely according to the pollsters. Some commentators have even started talking about the possibility of a landslide. And they have good reason to speculate, states that haven't voted for a Democrat for President in decades are suddenly in play. Even Georgia is getting close.

200821Sep

They're Called Convention Bounces for a Reason

 

For those of you new to the dynamics of U.S. presidential elections, the Democratic and Republican Conventions each tend to create a “convention bounce”: an increase in the poll numbers for their candidate and his party.  The size of these bounces varies from year to year and convention to convention, but the reasons for their existence are clear.  While conventions were once where presidential candidates were actual chosen, where party leaders entered the infamous smoke-filled rooms and hashed out the deals that would give someone the majority (or in the case of the Democrats before the 1930s the supermajority) of the delegates necessary to secure the nomination, since the 1970s, there has been little real drama about who will emerge as the parties’ nominees once the conventions role around.

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